Ukraine Update – The Post-Zelensky Whitehouse Meeting Fallout

By Jon Kurpis

The Friday February 28th meeting between President Trump, Vice President Vance, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office ended in an unmitigated disaster for the Ukrainian leader. It is rare for a foreign head of state to conduct himself so poorly in front of cameras that he must be dismissed outright and told not to return until he is ready to negotiate peace. With this turn of events, Ukraine’s position has shifted from dire to outright free fall. It is no exaggeration to say that Zelensky’s political survival—and potentially his life—is now at risk.

While much speculation surrounds the chaotic moments inside the meeting, the true significance lies in the events that led up to this breakdown. Understanding the broader context of how this crisis unfolded is far more important than dwelling on the dramatic details of the encounter itself.

The Core Issue: A Rare Earth Minerals Deal

At the center of this crisis is a proposed rare earth mineral deal between the United States and Ukraine. Ukraine possesses vast reserves of critical minerals, including titanium, lithium, manganese, and graphite—resources that remain largely untapped. The deal was originally pitched as a joint venture, but in reality, it was designed to serve a more strategic purpose for Ukraine.

Zelensky had floated this agreement as a way to secure continued American financial and military support, effectively using access to these minerals as leverage to keep the U.S. engaged in the conflict. His goal was clear: to entrench American involvement to such a degree that Washington would have no choice but to escalate its commitment to Ukraine, potentially even leading to direct military intervention. The Ukrainian president had discussed this proposal with multiple U.S. officials, including Senator Lindsey Graham, and even raised it directly with Trump during a pre-inauguration meeting in New York. After Trump took office, Zelensky attempted to revive the discussion, believing he could maneuver the new administration into a long-term security guarantee in exchange for these mineral assets.

The Turning Point

Approximately three weeks before the Oval Office meeting, Zelensky’s strategy collapsed. Trump, while interested in the minerals deal, immediately saw through its true intent. Rather than allowing it to be used as a bargaining tool for future aid, Trump viewed it as an opportunity for Ukraine to begin repaying the $350 billion the U.S. had already funneled into the war effort. Unlike Europe, which had structured its aid to Ukraine as loans, the Biden administration had made the catastrophic error of failing to include any repayment provisions. Recognizing this miscalculation, Trump saw Zelensky’s own proposal as the ideal mechanism to recover some of America’s investment.

To move forward with negotiations, President Trump dispatched U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to Kiev to meet with Zelensky in person. That meeting, which U.S. officials later described as “intense,” was in reality an explosive outburst from Zelensky. Instead of conducting himself as a statesman, Zelensky resorted to shouting at Bessent, a reckless and unprofessional display that severely undermined his standing with the new administration. Given that Bessent was responsible for overseeing the financial assistance flowing to Ukraine, this tantrum was not only insulting but also strategically disastrous.

European Meddling and the Failed Scheme to ‘Trick’ Trump

With President Trump unwilling to provide the security guarantees Zelensky sought, the Ukrainian leader turned to his European allies for assistance. French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer assured Zelensky that they could essentially manipulate Trump into committing to military support. Their plan relied on a carefully choreographed sequence of meetings over the course of a week.

President Macron was to meet with Trump first, using diplomacy and persuasion to secure U.S. backing for Ukraine’s security. The plan was not to ask for direct future support for Ukraine, but to instead explain that Europe would be putting troops on the ground. In the event of an emergency situation, the Europeans wanted an assurance they could call upon America for backup. After Macron persuaded the Trump administration to back this plan, Starmer would follow a few days later, reinforcing the agreement and addressing any unresolved concerns. Finally, Zelensky would arrive at the White House to formalize the rare earth mineral deal, believing that Macron and Starmer had already secured the security commitments he required.

However, this scheme fell apart almost immediately. President Trump saw through the maneuver and shut it down with ease. Macron’s efforts to sway him proved fruitless, leaving Starmer in an uncomfortable position. Realizing that pressing the issue further would be counterproductive, the British prime minister instead focused his discussions with Trump on preventing U.S. tariffs on British goods. By the time Zelensky arrived in Washington, he was already seething, knowing that the European assurances he had relied upon had amounted to nothing.

This frustration set the stage for the infamous Oval Office meeting. Confronted with the reality that he would have to sign the minerals deal without the security guarantees he had counted on, Zelensky’s anger boiled over. His behavior during the meeting led to the extraordinary decision to have him removed from the Whitehouse, marking a humiliating end to his visit.

Where Do We Go From Here?

The implications of this breakdown are profound. The outcome of the war in Ukraine is now all but sealed. With President Trump firmly rejecting any expansion of U.S. involvement, Ukraine’s survival as a functional state is no longer sustainable. American financial and military support has been the backbone of Ukraine’s war effort, covering not only weapons and equipment but also the salaries of Ukrainian soldiers, government officials, and pensioners. Without continued funding at current levels, Ukraine will reach a breaking point.

Even if the United States were to maintain its existing level of assistance, Russia’s military advantage remains overwhelming. Moscow has the capability to seize the entirety of Ukraine with minimal resistance, though such an outcome remains unlikely. Full occupation has never been Russia’s strategic goal, nor is it financially viable. Instead, Moscow will continue to consolidate control over the eastern regions ensuring that Ukraine remains permanently neutralized.

Europe, much like Zelensky, has also miscalculated. The relationship between European leaders and the Trump administration has now fractured. The continent remains heavily dependent on the U.S. for military security and economic stability—both of which have now been thrown into question.

As for the rare earth minerals deal, Trump immediately recognized it as a trap. While largely unreported, the most valuable mineral reserves Ukraine possesses are located in Russian-controlled territory. Zelensky’s intention had been to lock the United States into a security agreement, knowing that American financial interests would eventually be tied to land held by Russia. His expectation was that Washington would then pressure Moscow to return these territories to Ukrainian control. If Russia refused, the logic went, America would be compelled to intervene militarily to protect its investment.

What Zelensky had not accounted for was Trump’s ability to see through the ruse. Instead of making future military commitments, Trump sought immediate compensation for past debts. When it comes to rare earth minerals in Russian-held territory, Trump also correctly determined that he could negotiate directly with Moscow. In response, President Putin has already indicated a willingness to enter into economic partnerships with the United States, further neutralizing any leverage Ukraine once believed it had.

While the precise sequence of future events is impossible to predict, certain outcomes are now inevitable. Ukraine will lose the war. NATO membership for Ukraine is off the table indefinitely. Russia will retain Crimea and all other conquered territories. Economic relations between the U.S. and Russia will resume. European leaders, having overplayed their hand, will face mounting pressure from Washington.

As for Zelensky, he is leading Ukraine on borrowed time. His position is no longer tenable, and his political future is unlikely to extend far beyond the immediate crisis. The war is coming to an end—not on Ukraine’s terms, but on those of Russia. The Western strategy has collapsed, and those who led Ukraine into this catastrophe will soon have to answer for their failures.

One final, crucial point: I have written extensively about this conflict for years. At every stage, critics have challenged my facts and interpretations, yet history has consistently proven me right. I bring this up because a misleading narrative is gaining traction in Europe and will soon spread to America—that Russia is weak and that, with enough money, time, or assistance, Ukraine can achieve victory. This claim is not just incorrect; it is a deliberate falsehood.

The war hawks, neoconservatives, and European elites are outraged that the Trump administration is pursuing peace in Ukraine. In response, they are attempting to reshape the narrative to ultimately place the blame on Trump for Ukraine’s impending defeat. As I have been right before, I can state unequivocally that this is Biden’s war—a catastrophe for the collective West. Extending the conflict in any way risks escalating into a nuclear world war and needlessly sacrificing tens of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian lives.

Regardless of one’s opinion of Trump, his administration is taking the pragmatic and responsible approach. The vast majority of the world supports this position, and history will once again validate it. Above all, do not allow yourself to be misled by the false narrative that this war is winnable or that prolonging it serves any purpose other than furthering destruction and suffering.

As always, I sincerely appreciate your interest and support. Please do not hesitate to reach out if you have any questions or concerns.