As someone who has extensively covered the War in Ukraine and is preparing to publish a book on the subject in the future, I believe it is important to provide my readers with an update on the current state of the conflict. In short, the War in Ukraine, as we have come to know it, is effectively over.
The Ukrainian military has suffered catastrophic losses, with an estimated 60,000 additional soldiers killed in the Kursk region since August. The frontlines have collapsed, and critical supply lines have been severed. Without direct military intervention from the United States, including the deployment of troops and nuclear capabilities, there appears to be no viable path for Ukraine to recover militarily, leaving negotiation with Russia as the only remaining option.
Russia now holds a decisive position of power, having secured military superiority, outpaced the collective west in defense production, and maintained strong domestic support as well as favorable relations with the majority of countries globally. President Vladimir Putin has effectively won not only the military conflict but also the public relations and sanctions battle.
Ukraine, due in large part to inexplicable miscalculations and brazen overconfidence, is now a shell of its former self. The nation faces severe infrastructural challenges, including a compromised electrical grid and an economy incapable of sustaining itself. Recent reports indicate that the United States has demanded 50% of Ukraine’s mineral resources in perpetuity as repayment for its prior support, and has made it clear that further aid from Washington is unlikely.
European leaders in Brussels, London and Paris have expressed frustration with the United States’ realistic stance. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has publicly made it clear that Ukraine will NEVER be granted NATO membership, and continued support for the alliance itself is contingent on significant financial contributions from European nations, potentially amounting to trillions of dollars over the coming decades. Additionally, European and Ukrainian leaders have been excluded from upcoming negotiations due to perceived inconsistencies and unrealistic strategies and expectations. The United States and Russia are scheduled to meet for a summit in Saudi Arabia in the coming days to discuss the path forward.
Despite these developments, delusional European leaders have proposed deploying peacekeeping forces to Ukraine, a move that is both legally and practically untenable. Peacekeeping operations fall under the jurisdiction of the United Nations, where Russia holds veto power as a permanent member of the Security Council, rendering any such European military intervention improbable. Europe, once a symbol of democratic values and intellectual leadership, has deteriorated into a fragmented collection of struggling nations, increasingly characterized by authoritarian tendencies reminiscent of Soviet-era repression rather than the democratic principles they once championed.
In conclusion, the Special Military Operation has reached its practical end. Ukraine will not regain Crimea or its eastern territories, will cede significant economic resources to the United States, and will have limited influence over the terms of its eventual settlement. Sanctions on Russia are expected to be lifted, diplomatic relations normalized, and U.S. investment in Moscow to increase as both nations collaborate on matters extending beyond Ukraine.
Ultimately, this outcome offers a significant relief to both Ukraine and the world. The sooner young men and women are no longer lost to needless conflict, the better. The restoration of Russian energy supplies to global markets will aid economic stability, and moving beyond the failures of the Biden administration’s handling of this war is essential. Let this serve as a sobering lesson to nations and leaders, including those in the United States: supporting unwinnable military ventures or sacrificing a generation of young lives based on geopolitical greed and misinformation is a grave mistake. Respecting the red lines established by nuclear powers is imperative, and distancing from corrupt, kleptocratic regimes with questionable allegiances is essential for global stability and peace.
Hi Jon, very interesting perspective. I'm not sure I agree with everything, but I do agree that Ukraine cannot win militarily. Extemely well written article.