The Critical Point is Upon Us - Part 2
By Jon Kurpis
In Part 1, we explored the factors that make this the critical part of the War in Ukraine. We also discussed President Trump’s attempt to broker a ceasefire and the issues his administration was having formulating an acceptable plan for peace.
Originally, the U.S. plan for peace was developed by General Keith Kellogg. Kellogg’s idea had been to broker a quick, face-saving, non-binding settlement that favored Ukrainian and European wishes. On paper, it appeared to be a fair compromise. But in reality, it missed the mark entirely, as the Kellogg Plan didn’t address the root causes of the war which is something Russia insists upon. Furthermore, Kellogg essentially pretended that this is a negotiation between equals. It’s not. Russia is winning and holds all the cards.
When one side is dominant in negotiations between nation-states, the usual “nobody fully wins, nobody fully loses” model doesn’t apply. The dominant side dictates terms. The weaker side gets to survive with some dignity, if they’re lucky. That’s the hard truth. But General Kellogg doesn’t seem to get that. He pushed a plan that doesn’t account for Russian leverage, doesn’t respect their red lines, and doesn’t reflect who’s in control of the battlefield.
So, while President Trump might have fully understood that Ukraine can’t win this war, his lead diplomat is committed to using a playbook for a totally different kind of negotiation, one that doesn’t apply here. And because of that, the Kellogg Plan had no chance of being accepted. Not by Russia. Not even by Ukraine.
Now fast forward to late April 2025. With all of this playing heavily in the background, a team of American diplomats, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, met with European allies and Ukraine. The message from the United States was blunt and shocking: agree to a peace plan immediately, or the U.S. walks away from the war.
To give the process a final chance, President Trump sent Steve Witkoff to meet with Putin for a fourth time, where he put forth a modified version of General Kellogg’s plan for peace. For the purposes of this article, I will refer to this modified plan as Kellogg Plus, which is a name being used to describe it in geopolitical circles.
Here’s what the Kellogg Plus plan calls for:
Immediate ceasefire
Territorial lines frozen as is
No NATO membership for Ukraine
No U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine
Ukraine recognizes Crimea as Russian
All Russian sanctions lifted
Ukraine allowed to join the EU
Although a step in the right direction and appreciated by Moscow, the Kellogg Plus plan was nowhere near detailed enough to get Russian approval.
To understand why the Kellogg Plus plan fell short, it’s important to examine the root causes of the War with Ukraine from the perspective of Russia. The reason we must examine it from their side is because they hold all the leverage and peace cannot occur without their buy-in. And if we are being objective, the Russian viewpoint is in accordance with reality and accepted by most of the world.
From the Russian perspective, the war in Ukraine started in 2014, when the U.S. overthrew the democratically elected Ukrainian government and replaced it with a pro-Nazi administration that sought to join NATO. Once in power, this government built up military forces in Eastern Ukraine along Russia’s Western border. This new government also bombed Russians living in these Eastern territories, killing 14,000 people. Adding insult to injury, Ukraine also banned the Russian language and the canonical Orthodox Church.
All of this provocation, along with the insistence that Ukraine join NATO, eventually resulted in Russia’s 2022 invasion that was aimed at protecting the Russian border as well as Russians living in the two Eastern regions of Ukraine.
A few months after the conflict began, diplomats from Russia and Ukraine met in Istanbul to negotiate an end to the fighting. The two sides came to an agreement, accepted by both Putin and Zelensky, which covered all the root causes of the war. Had the U.S. and U.K. not interfered and sabotaged that agreement, the war would have ended years ago.
The root causes of the conflict that were addressed by Ukraine and Russia included the following:
No NATO membership for Ukraine
Peaceful Independence for DPR & LPR (Eastern Territories)
Ukrainian acceptance of the Russian language
Ukrainian acceptance of the canonical Orthodox Church
Ukraine declares permanent neutrality and scales down military
Elimination of Nazi elements from Ukrainian government
To reiterate, all these concessions, deemed essential by Russia for its long-term security, were agreed to by Ukraine in April 2022. Therefore, when President Putin stated to his Foreign Ministry on June 14, 2024, that all future negotiations must begin from what amounts to an Istanbul Plus foundation, he was referring to these agreed upon points, plus additional terms to compensate for Ukraine’s failure to honor the previous deal.
Although President Trump sincerely seeks a peaceful resolution, the Kellogg Plus plan falls well short of the 2022 Istanbul agreement and thus cannot be accepted by Moscow. Beyond failing to address all the root causes, Kellogg Plus seeks a quick fix which is an approach fundamentally incompatible with Russia’s requirements.
It is crucial to recognize that Russia views this conflict as existential. As such, ALL the underlying issues must be comprehensively addressed to ensure this situation NEVER repeats. Even if the parties were to agree on every point, intricate legal mechanisms would need to be developed to guarantee the agreement’s permanent enforcement. This is something that would require many months to properly craft. No quick settlement is possible, regardless of how much President Trump may wish for one.
Even if the Trump administration were to dedicate the time and energy required to make it happen, the Ukrainians and Europeans would be fully against it. To shed light on just how insane they have become, let’s go over Zelensky and the Europeans recent proposed armistice plan meant to counter America’s Kellogg Plus plan.
Zelensky and the EU countries expect Russia will formally agree to:
A full unconditional ceasefire.
Russia gives back all territory in Ukraine including Crimea.
Ukraine CAN join NATO.
Russian assets remain frozen.
Europe doesn’t lift Russian sanctions.
America gives Ukraine security guarantees that match what they would be entitled to if they were already a part of NATO.
Russia pays full reparations to Ukraine.
Russia must release Ukrainian prisoners of war, but Russian POW remain captive.
No recognition of Russian language.
No recognition of the canonical orthodox church.
European’s soldiers may take up positions in Ukraine on Russia’s border.
And more
Anyone with rudimentary knowledge of the war should know that this proposal is delusional. Not only does it fail to address the root causes of the conflict, it attempts to make Russia, who is winning the war, agree to a deal designed for a country who just lost a war. For some unknown reason, Zelensky and the Europeans think they control the battlefield and can therefore dictate terms. In reality, nothing could be further from the truth. And what makes this proposal even more bizarre is the fact that Ukraine already agreed to fix all the root causes back in April 2022.
So even if America and Russia were able to create a perfect, binding mechanism for peace, Zelensky and the Europeans will refuse to accept it. They would rather lose the entire country and every Ukranian than concede to Putin on even a single issue.
When I write that the critical point of the war is upon us, it’s actually an understatement. The recently failed Kursk offensive is a prime example of just how grave the situation is. For those of you unfamiliar with it, the bottom line is the Ukrainian military just lost an ill-advised incursion into the Kursk region of Russia. During that mission alone, which didn’t even occur in Ukraine, 76,000 Ukrainian troops were killed in action. These poor Ukrainian soldiers were surrounded, but Russia agreed to respect their lives if Zelensky simply allowed them to surrender. Tragically, Zelensky refused to bend and opted to let them die. More Ukranian soldiers were lost in Kursk than America lost in action during Vietnam and the American Revolution combined. Despite this unacceptable loss of life and no possible way to win, Zelensky and his EU counterparts arrogantly insist on perpetuating the conflict.
As Russia already knows, and the Trump administration is quickly finding out, Zelensky is unhinged and impossible to work with. He is purposefully leaving Russia with no choice but to break Ukraine militarily and Europe supports this catastrophic policy in full.
Given the situation and the players involved, it is now apparent that President Trump has no choice but to disengage and let Ukraine suffer whatever fate awaits them. America must stop sending money, weapons, and intelligence to this deluded regime literally led by a madman. Continuing to do so will only prolong the suffering and deepens US culpability for massive amounts of death and destruction.
America has done what it can to negotiate peace and it’s never going to be enough. It’s time to accept that reality and adjust accordingly. Unfortunately for the truly good people of Ukraine, the globalist war mongers have decided to sacrifice you. There is no peaceful or happy ending to this geopolitical story.